Gas and electricity tariff increases factored into 2025 inflation forecast — Central Bank

The Central Bank forecasts that inflation will decrease from 9.8 percent in 2024 to 7−8 percent in 2025. According to the Central Bank Chairman, this forecast takes into account the planned increase in energy prices in April. Specifically, the base tariff for electricity (for consumption up to 200 kWh per month) is set to increase by 33.3 percent, from 450 UZS to 600 UZS. Meanwhile, the price of gas will rise by 53.8 percent, from 650 UZS to 1,000 UZS.

"In the inflation forecast, we have considered the prices of energy resources, utility payments, gasoline, propane, and all other tariffs regulated by the state. Based on this, the forecast for inflation is 7−8 percent," said Timur Ishmetov.

Back in late October of the previous year, the Central Bank had estimated that the impact of tariff increases on inflation would be between 1.5−1.8 percentage points.

On January 23, the Central Bank confirmed that the primary effects of last year’s energy price increases (for gas and electricity) would begin to dissipate by the end of the second quarter, leading to a significant reduction in overall inflation.

In 2025, the next round of price increases is expected to cause a temporary rise in overall inflation in April, due to the timing of the hikes, which will differ by one month.

The regulator also highlighted that the secondary effects of these changes on core inflation will play a key role in shaping the monetary and credit policy directions in the future.

Despite the anticipated price increases this year and last year, the Uzbek government plans to continue subsidizing gas and electricity tariffs. In 2025, the state budget is expected to allocate 12.3 trillion UZS  to subsidize gas, electricity, and heating. According to Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Kuchkarov, this subsidy program is expected to continue until 2028.