Inflation expectations reach two-year high amid rising costs in December
Rising energy prices and utility tariffs remain the main factors shaping inflation expectations among the population, according to a study by the Central Bank.
The average forecast for price growth over the next 12 months reached 14.4% (+0.7%) - a level not seen since February 2023. The median figure stood at 11.6% (+0.5%).
Tashkent once again recorded the highest inflation expectations - over 19%, followed by the Fergana (16.7%) and Kashkadarya (16%) regions. The lowest projections were noted in the Andijan region (12.4%), Khorezm (12.7%), and Karakalpakstan (12.9%).
By sector, the highest estimates came from industrial workers (16%), civil servants (15.8%), and educators and researchers (15.2%). Relative optimism was observed in the household services (12.2%), tourism (12.3%), and agriculture (12.5%) sectors.
Those with higher incomes expect stronger price increases. Among individuals with monthly incomes exceeding 15 million UZS, the forecast reached 18.6%, while for those earning 10–15 million UZS, it was 15.7%. The lowest projections were noted among citizens earning 4–5 million UZS (12.9%) and 2–3 million UZS (13.9%).
The leading factor influencing forecasts was the rise in fuel prices (57%), followed closely by increases in utility tariffs (56%) and exchange rate fluctuations (55%). Additionally, 35% cited rising transportation costs, and 33% pointed to monopolistic practices.
The expected price growth among businesses rose by more than a percentage point over the month, reaching 13.9%. The median forecast stood at 11.4% (+0.7%).
The highest estimates were recorded in Tashkent (16.9%), Samarkand (15.2%), and the Fergana region (15%). Relatively low projections were noted in Karakalpakstan (11.5%), Khorezm (12.4%), and Surkhandarya (12.8%).
Entrepreneurs in the construction and agricultural sectors provided the highest average estimates - 14.5%, followed by the food service sector at 14.2%. The lowest estimates came from the transportation (11.8%), cultural (11.9%), and tourism (12.5%) sectors.
Exchange rate dynamics and rising utility costs remain the primary factors in price growth forecasts (52%), followed by increasing fuel prices (49%). Additionally, 34% pointed to higher transportation costs, and 27% cited increased tax burdens.
Recommended
List of streets and intersections being repaired in Tashkent published
SOCIETY | 19:12 / 16.05.2024
Uzbekistan's flag flies high on Oceania's tallest volcano
SOCIETY | 17:54 / 15.05.2024
New tariffs to be introduced in Tashkent public transport
SOCIETY | 14:55 / 05.05.2023
Onix and Tracker cars withdrawn from sale
BUSINESS | 10:20 / 05.05.2023
Latest news
-
Tajikistan and Russia lead as top choices for Uzbek students studying abroad
SOCIETY | 12:26
-
Uzbekistan’s secondary car market experienced a sales decline in December
SOCIETY | 20:49 / 17.01.2025
-
Canteens of educational institutions to be leased through E-auction
SOCIETY | 20:48 / 17.01.2025
-
Saudi Arabia mandates meningitis vaccination for Umrah pilgrims starting February 2025
SOCIETY | 20:46 / 17.01.2025
Related News
18:01 / 16.01.2025
Uzbekistan achieves 6.5% GDP growth, surpassing $115 billion milestone
16:45 / 16.01.2025
Self-employed population in Uzbekistan reaches 4.4 million with a 76.5% increase in 2024
14:09 / 16.01.2025
Uzbekistan sees increase in 200,000 UZS banknotes in circulation
19:41 / 15.01.2025