Business inflation expectations significantly declined in January – Central Bank

The average forecast for price increases over the next 12 months remains at its highest level in two years — 14.4%. The median forecast is 11.6%.

Tashkent region now ranks at the top among regions, with a forecast of 15.7%, surpassing Bukhara (15.6%) and Andijan (15.5%). The capital ranks fourth with a forecast of 15.3%. The lowest forecasts are in Jizzakh (12.5%) and Navoi (12.9%) regions.

Among professional sectors, the highest inflation expectations are in trade (15.5%), the public sector (15.2%), and catering (15.1%). Relatively optimistic projections are from agricultural workers and IT specialists (13.1%), as well as students and construction workers (13.4%).

As in previous months, citizens with higher incomes have more pronounced expectations for price growth. Among those earning 15 million UZS or more per month, expectations reach 18.2%, while those earning between 7-15 million UZS expect increases just above 16%. The lowest expectations come from those with incomes between 2-3 million UZS (13.5%).

The primary factor driving price growth remains the rise in housing and utilities tariffs, which 57% of respondents identified—this is the first time since May. Following closely are increases in energy prices (50%), currency fluctuations (46%), and rising transportation costs (30%). Speculative price hikes were mentioned by just 25%, a decrease from a third in the previous month.

Among entrepreneurs, inflation expectations have decreased notably. The average expectation is 12.9%, a decrease of one percentage point from December, while the median expectation is 10.9% (-0.5%).

Tashkent business leaders gave the highest average forecast—16.2%, followed by Samarkand (13.9%) and Syrdarya (13.8%) regions. The lowest expectations were noted in Surkhandarya (10.8%), Andijan, and Karakalpakstan (11.5%).

The education sector, tourism, and entertainment industries have the highest expected price increases—14.8%, 14.5%, and 14%, respectively. The lowest figures were in IT (11.2%) and the manufacturing sector (11.9%).

Entrepreneurs also identified the rise in housing and utilities tariffs as the leading factor influencing their forecasts (54%). Currency fluctuations (51%) and increases in energy tariffs (49%) also remain key factors.