Real estate market cools: Price growth slows and sales volume decline in 2024

According to a report by the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR), the average nominal price in the secondary housing market in dollar terms rose by 6.2% in 2024.

However, the pace of price growth continues to slow down — for comparison, in 2023, the increase was 17.5%, and in 2022, it reached 23.6%. In national currency (UZS) terms, residential property prices rose by 10.8%, compared to 29% the previous year.

After adjusting for inflation, the real price increase at the end of last year stood at just 0.9%. In contrast, the real growth rate in the previous year was 18.5%.

Over the past three years, the sharpest price increases were observed in Tashkent region, where the price per square meter jumped by two-thirds to reach $657. Bukhara region ranked second in terms of price growth (55%), followed by Fergana region (54%).

The highest absolute prices are recorded in the capital, where the average price per square meter stands at $1,097 — 1.5 times higher than in 2022. Samarkand holds second place at $750, although prices there have risen by only 39%.

The most affordable housing is found in Karakalpakstan, at $327 per square meter. This region also saw the lowest price increase in the country (+18%). Other regions with relatively low prices include Syrdarya ($400) and Jizzakh ($417).

The number of registered real estate transactions fell by 5.8% to 256,600 — slightly below the 2022 level. For comparison, housing demand rose by 3.8% in 2022 and by 5.7% in 2023.

Mortgage lending growth has also slowed. In 2022, the volume of new mortgage loans surged by nearly 50% to 14.4 trillion UZS. In 2024, 17.1 trillion UZS in mortgage loans were issued — just 6% more than the previous year.

Meanwhile, the share of loans issued for purchasing housing on the secondary market rose to 40%. However, the volume of these loans reached 6.6 trillion UZS last year — 7% less than in the previous year.

CERR experts expect housing prices to stabilize this year. According to their calculations, a 1% increase in mortgage lending correlates with a 0.37% rise in the price per square meter.