Uzbekistan to raise wages and pensions above inflation through 2030

Under the main objectives of macroeconomic and fiscal policy through 2030, the government plans to raise the wages of public sector employees, as well as pensions and social benefits, each year at levels exceeding inflation in order to boost real household incomes.

As part of reforms to the state pension system, the authorities also intend to reduce the volume of transfers from the national budget to the off-budget Pension Fund under the Ministry of Economy and Finance.

The Pension Fund’s balance at the start of 2026 is projected at UZS 3.9 trillion, with revenues of UZS 64.7 trillion and expenditures of UZS 86.1 trillion. To cover the deficit, the government plans to allocate UZS 23 trillion in budget transfers in 2026, an increase of 13.8%.

In the following years, the ministry expects the amount of transfers to decline: to UZS 20 trillion in 2027 and UZS 18 trillion in 2028.

In 2027, Pension Fund revenues are projected to reach UZS 75 trillion against expenditures of UZS 95.1 trillion. In 2028, revenues are forecast at UZS 87.8 trillion, while spending is expected to exceed UZS 104.8 trillion.

Over the next three years, the number of pensioners in Uzbekistan will increase by 489,000 to a total of 4.76 million. The number of people reaching retirement age annually is expected to grow by 5.1% – from 305,000 in 2025 to 321,000 in 2028.

According to the ministry, each 1-percentage-point increase in public sector salaries costs the budget UZS 1.67 trillion. A similar increase in pension payments costs UZS 861 billion. If the number of families receiving social benefits rises by 10%, budget expenditures will grow by almost UZS 1.6 trillion.

The indicators in the latest budget message differ significantly from the fiscal strategy the ministry presented in July this year, when transfers in 2028 were projected to reach UZS 26 trillion. The likely savings are expected to stem from pension system reforms.