The Institute for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research conducted a study to assess the key changes in the development of the scientific-technical sphere.
After analyzing the trends for 2015-2020, experts identified what factors had the greatest impact on the growth rates of science in the republic.
In accordance with the results obtained, in 2020 the highest growth rates were noted for such groups of indicators as costs for research and development (R&D) (145.1%) and publications in international journals. In general, the growth rates of the scientific and technical sphere increased in 2020 compared to 2015 by 8.5 percentage points and reached 120.9%.
In recent years, the growth rate of results obtained in the process of R&D has accelerated from 110.2% in 2015 to 130.8% in 2020.
To assess the cumulative dynamics of changes in the scientific and technical sphere for 2015-2020, the growth index of the scientific and technical sphere (GISTS) was used. To calculate the index, indicators are used with values in growth rates compared to the previous year.
The index consists of 2 blocks: available resources and achieved practical results. Each block, in turn, consists of groups of indicators. A total of 16 indicators are used.
The first block “Disposable resources” includes the following groups of indicators:
- scientific organizations: growth rates of scientific research organizations; the growth rate of scientific organizations in the public sector; the growth rate of organizations in the business sector.
- personnel: growth rates of doctors of science; growth rate of PhDs; the growth rate of researchers (without part-time jobs); the growth rate of researchers (part-time teachers with teaching activities);
- costs: the growth rate of R&D costs; the growth rate of public sector spending; the growth rate of the costs of the business sector.
The second block “Achieved practical results” includes such groups of indicators as:
- R&D performed: growth rate of R&D performed; the growth rate of R&D performed in the public sector; the growth rate of R&D performed in the business sector;
- international publications: the rate of growth in the number of publications in international journals; growth rates of cited publications; the rate of growth in the number of citations.
The growth index of the scientific and technical sphere was calculated based on statistical data for 2015-2020. The results are shown in the following table.
Thus, the index shows a decrease in the growth rates of indicators reflecting human and financial resources. The continuation of this trend will lead in the medium and long term to a decrease in the growth rates of indicators reflecting the return on the development of human resources and invested funding.
“The high growth rate of the block of achieved practical results in 2020 is a return on investments in science and research results of previous years,” the conclusion says.
