Economists Otabek Bakirov and Mirkomil Kholboyev spoke to Kun.uz about the impact of Russian immigrants on which markets. “A 1-percent increase in population or consumption will not affect prices,” Mirkomil Kholboyev says. According to Otabek Bakirov, the impact of immigrants depends on whether they stay in Uzbekistan temporarily or for a long time.
Economist Mirkomil Kholboyev emphasizes that in assessing the impact of immigrants, it is necessary to look from the point of view of which markets will be affected by the immigrants.
“For example, the balance has been broken in the rental market. This affects not only those who are looking for an apartment for rent, but also those who have been renting for some time. In general, landlords are raising prices even for those who are still renting. It can be seen that this has a sharp impact on the rental market,” he said.
The economist says he doesn’t think the influx of migrants will have a big impact on prices for consumer goods or other goods, but stresses that accurate data on the number of Russians arriving is still needed to assess the effects.
“If there are 40-50 thousand immigrants, they probably will not make up even one percent of the living population. A 1-percent increase in consumption or population has little effect on prices. Another market is the labor market. I don’t think there is a big risk in terms of entering the labor market or competing in the labor market if the incoming ones are not highly qualified (for example, IT specialist)”.
Otabek Bakirov expressed the opinion that negative effects can occur in short shocks.
“If we consider incoming immigrants as a long-term or medium-term resource, if there are conditions or signs, they will provide additional resources and opportunities for our economy. But if the territory of Uzbekistan is viewed as speculative, that is, transit status, it will have negative effects on various markets – housing, consumption and labor market through short-term shocks. It may even have a negative impact on the infrastructure at some points”.
The economist mentions that 100 years ago, many people of Turkestan moved to Afghanistan to avoid consequences of the second Russian-Soviet invasion by the Bolsheviks.
“They immigrated to Iran and Turkey depending on the opportunity. I am not saying that these events are happening, the opposite may also happen, if everything stabilizes after the end of the war, they may return not to a third country, but to Russia.
It is better to emphasize the positives than the negatives. Yes, we should not forget about the negative consequences. But for now, it is good that we accept it as a layer that can benefit our economy in good faith,” the economist says.
One can watch the full interview on Kun.uz YouTube page.
