Inflationary expectations of residents and businesses show an upward trend 

“Decreasing dynamics of inflationary expectations of the population continued until July, switching to a slow growing trend from the third quarter,” the regulator noted.

It should be recalled that the average price expectations of the population in September was 13.5%. In October, the index increased by 0.2%. Most of the 2,950 respondents who took part in the Central Bank survey expect price increases in the next year to be mainly influenced by exchange rate changes (59%), fuel and energy prices (49%), and utility service prices (36%).

It should be noted that three types of information – regions, incomes and business activities – were dropped from the October infographic. It should be noted that since September, the Central Bank has stopped publishing respondents’ answers to inflation expectations. In August, about 30 percent of respondents expected inflation to be at the official forecast level (9-12%) by the end of the year, but an increase in the percentage of respondents forecasting inflation in the range of 13-16, 17-20, 21-25 and 31-50% was noted (14%).

Business expectations

In October, business entities’ inflation expectations for the next 12 months slightly increased compared to the previous month and amounted to 14.4%. A total of 1,436 respondents participated in the survey on the expectations of entrepreneurs. Most of them, like the population, expect price increases in the next year mainly due to exchange rate changes (62%), fuel and energy price increases (47%), and utility services (37%).