Uzbekistan to cap sugar imports at 300,000 tonnes under classified government decree

He argued that the quota would effectively restrict imports through administrative controls, reviving a system that had previously enabled corruption in sugar imports.

Bakirov warned that higher sugar prices would disproportionately affect lower-income households, while beverage and confectionery manufacturers could be forced to scale back operations or close. He also said the restrictions could undermine export markets that Uzbek producers have only recently begun to enter.

The economist estimated that the state budget would lose about $65 million in customs revenue annually as a result of the restrictions.

“If imports are administratively reduced by an average of 500,000 tonnes a year and sugar is valued at $650 per tonne, the state budget will lose $65 million, or an average of UZS 770 billion, in import duty revenue,” Bakirov said.

He also questioned the government's decision to classify the resolution, arguing that the document offered no publicly available justification for reintroducing import quotas.

Economist Yuliy Yusupov also criticized the decision, focusing on its classified status and what he described as the longstanding failure of Uzbekistan's import-substitution policy.

He questioned why a measure intended to support domestic businesses had been kept from public view, arguing that the government had routinely used tax breaks, customs concessions, credit support and import restrictions to protect local manufacturers since 1996.

Under this approach, Yusupov said, businesses initially receive state support and protection from foreign competition. Once the benefits expire, however, some prove unable to compete on the open market, prompting the government to extend existing concessions or introduce new ones.

Yusupov argued that repeatedly protecting domestic producers from competition risks entrenching monopolies and creating opportunities for corruption rather than encouraging businesses to become more efficient.

He said Uzbekistan would struggle to establish the conditions for sustainable economic growth unless it abandoned its longstanding import-substitution policy, adding that the classified status of the latest resolution suggested officials were reluctant to expose the policy to public scrutiny.

The new sugar import restrictions are due to take effect on January 1, 2027. Their eventual impact on domestic prices, manufacturers and government revenue will depend in part on how the quotas are implemented and whether they are revised in response to market conditions.