The Central Bank of Uzbekistan may revise the inflation forecast in the III quarter of 2019. This is stated in the CB's monetary policy review.
According to the basic development scenario of the main directions of monetary policy for 2019 and 2020-2021, the inflation for 2019 is forecasted at 13,5 – 15,5%.
The Central Bank kept these forecasts unchanged. At the same time, with an increase in the cost of domestic goods and services due to expanding the secondary impact of the increase in regulated prices (for example, an increase in energy costs), a relatively rising inflationary environment is expected in the beginning of 2019.
The highest annual inflation rate will be in the I quarter of 2019. In addition, short-term fluctuations in inflation can be observed during the period when business entities adapt to new taxation conditions.
“This situation makes it difficult to work out more accurate forecasts,” the report said.
It is worth recalling that earlier, the main non-monetary factors that could influence the growth of prices, have been publicized.
