The World Bank predicts a slowdown in the economy of Uzbekistan (1.5%) in 2020. In April, GDP growth was predicted at 1.6%.
Despite this, Uzbekistan remains the only country in the region of Europe and Central Asia whose economy will continue to grow. For other countries, the WB predicts a negative indicator, follows from the Global Economic Prospects report for June.
In 2021, WB experts predict a 6.6% increase in Uzbekistan’s GDP.
The region’s economy is projected to decline by 4.7%, the recession will affect almost all countries. This forecast is based on the assumption that the governments’ restrictive measures will gradually be lifted by the beginning of the second half of the year. Under a scenario that assumes gradual mitigation of the consequences of the pandemic and recovery in trade and investment, the economies of Europe and Central Asia are expected to revive in 2021 and show growth of 3.6%.
The report notes that the region’s economy is open to trade and financial flows, including remittances, and therefore vulnerable to the side effects of global shocks. In addition, it is expected that the economic growth rate of the countries exporting energy resources, including Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, will be affected by low oil prices.
The Russian economy is projected to fall by 6% this year due to a spike in the incidence of COVID-19 and a drop in oil prices. In case of further “freezing” of economic activity and sluggish investment processes in Turkey, its economy is expected to decline by 3.8% this year.
The impact of coronavirus outbreaks is slowing down private consumption and investment, and against this background, economic activity is expected to decline in all subregions in 2020: in Central Europe by 5%, in the Western Balkans by 3.2%, in the South Caucasus by 3.1%, in Eastern Europe by 3.6% and in Central Asia by 1.7%.
The impact on economic activity is highly uncertain and could be more severe if the pandemic worsens and the accompanying business downturn deepens.
