According to the expectations of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the economic growth of Central Asian countries will be 5.2% in 2023 and 5.4% in 2024. High interest rates, inflation, and rising commodity prices may negatively impact regional growth in the long term.
According to the forecasts of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the economy of Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will grow by an average of 5.2% in 2023. This was mentioned in the organization’s “Regional Economic Forecast” report.
“The region is expected to experience economic growth of approximately 5.4% in 2024 due to the migration of businesses and individuals from Russia, improved governance, increased exports of goods, and new ties with China.
The economies of the Central Asian countries have shown their resilience to the unpleasant geopolitical event related to Russia’s war against Ukraine. Most of the region’s economies have strengthened trade relations with Russia by supplying their products, acting as intermediaries in the gap created by the withdrawal of international firms from the Russian market. The volume of remittances from abroad to Central Asia increased significantly, which served to increase bank deposits and profits. The migration of Russian firms and individuals increased demand in retail, real estate and hotel systems,” the EBRD report reads.
It is noted that remittances of labor migrants have also increased against the background of strong labor demand in Russia and the strengthening of the ruble.
“In the first quarter of 2023, growth continued across the region, with consumer price inflation in most countries well above the target ranges set by central banks. Economies of the region may continue to grow rapidly in the near future, but uncertainty remains regarding global trends in interest rates, inflation, and commodity prices,” ETTB experts noted.
Forecasts for Uzbekistan
In 2022, the economy of Uzbekistan recorded a growth of 5.7%. This was greatly influenced by the significant improvement of external and internal demand, including the doubling of remittances.
“Uzbekistan’s economy is expected to grow by 6.5% in 2023 and 2024. This is due to the influx of foreign investments, companies and individuals, privatization and reforms aimed at improving the business environment. Despite relative diversification, economic growth may be hampered by further escalation of Russia’s war against Ukraine and a decline in remittances,” the report said.
