Central Bank announced inflation expectations

According to the results of a survey conducted in May, the inflation expectations of the population amounted to 13.7%, and the expectations of business entities – 13.5%. Both categories cited exchange rate fluctuations and increases in wages, pensions and benefits as the most important factors influencing prices.

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The Central Bank published data on inflation expectations of the population and business entities for the month of May.

According to the regulator, inflation expectations of the population decreased by 0.4 percentage points and amounted to 13.7%.

The population believes that the following factors will influence future price increases:

• changes in the exchange rate (47%);
• increase in wages and benefits (36%);
• artificial increase in prices (36%);
• rising prices for fuel and energy (32%).

Inflation expectations of business entities

According to the results of May, the expectations of the surveyed business entities regarding price growth for the next 12 months amounted to 13.5% and decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous month.

Business representatives believe that the following factors will affect the price increase:

• exchange rate fluctuations (44%);
• increase in wages and benefits (36%);
• increase in prices for fuel and lubricants and transport services (30%);
• deterioration of the competitive environment in the economy (18%).

Also in May, the inflation rate felt by the population amounted to 13.6%. The highest inflation rate in the regions was observed in Namangan – 16.3%, Tashkent – 16.1% and Khorezm – 15%, and the lowest – in Navoi – 11.6%, Surkhandarya – 11.7% and Tashkent region – 12 %.

Goods and services for which a significant increase in prices was noted by consumers:

Sugar and confectionery – 37.8% (of the total number of respondents)

meat and dairy products – 36.6%;
building goods – 31.1%;
fruits and vegetables – 22.7%;

How have the prices of basic foodstuffs changed over the past year?

In May 2023, goods and services in the consumer sector rose in price by an average of 0.5%, and the annual inflation rate reached 10.4%. Inflation in the food sector amounted to 13%.

Prices for certain types of basic food products changed annually as follows:

More expensive:

• rice – 57.5%;
• sugar – 40.6%;
• eggs – 25.5%;
• milk – 18%;
• beef on bone – 14.2%;
• mutton – 13.7%;
• wheat flour – 12.2%;

Cheaper:

• sunflower oil – 8.7%.

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