In the first half of 2025, the difference between the fundamental and market values of housing fell from 17 percent to 4 percent.
The Central Bank reports that the notable increase in supply and the decline in speculative demand have contributed to a decrease in market prices. At the same time, the narrowing gap was also supported by an increase in the fundamental value of housing.
The 4-percent difference recorded in the second quarter of 2025 is the lowest level observed since the first quarter of 2022.
Housing prices show signs of adjustment
According to National Statistics Committee data cited in the Central Bank report, as of the end of the first half of 2025, market prices for housing decreased by 4.9 percent in UZS terms and by 6.2 percent in foreign-currency terms compared to the same period in 2024.
Over the same period, supply continued to grow. The volume of construction completed in the first half of 2025 increased by 72 percent year-on-year to 137.6 trillion UZS. The share of construction in GDP rose to 17 percent. As of 1 July 2025, the annual growth rate of construction and installation costs accelerated to 6.3 percent.
Household ability to purchase housing has stabilized
Longer mortgage terms, lower interest rates and rising household incomes have collectively helped restore the population’s ability to purchase housing through mortgages.
In the first half of 2025, the housing affordability index reached 121 percent.
In 2024, the number of residential units in the real estate market increased by 1 percent to 7.6 million units.
Housing prices declining relative to GDP per capita
As of 1 July 2025, the ratio of housing prices to nominal GDP per capita stood at 22 percent, down 4 percentage points from the same period in 2024.
According to the report, this trend is driven both by declining market prices for housing and by a 16 percent increase in nominal GDP per capita.
