Positive growth is expected for most macroeconomic and sectorial indicators in 2020. According to preliminary calculations, the growth of Uzbekistan’s GDP at the end of the year will exceed the Central Bank’s basic forecasts (1-1.5 percent).
According to the Central Bank, this is primarily due to the 0.1 percent growth in industrial production from January to November 2020, the 2.4 percent increase in retail trade, the 2.2 percent and 8.7 percent growth in services and the construction sector, respectively.
In addition, alternative indicators also show a certain excess of forecasts in the main macroeconomic indicators. In particular, the total volume of transactions on the Republican Commodity Exchange increased steadily in the III-IV quarters. In the IV quarter, this figure increased by 1.3 times over the corresponding quarter of 2019.
The total number of transactions through the inter-bank payment system in the Q4 increased by 17.1 percent compared to the previous quarter, and revenue from trade and market services grew by 19.7 percent in comparison with the Q3 of 2020.
The results of surveys conducted by the Central Bank on economic activity and business sentiment show an improvement in their indices in the third to fourth quarters after the fall in July 2020.