BUSINESS | 14:16 / 22.11.2023
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CB: Uzbekistan’s inflation forecasts are rising again

Since the beginning of the year, the main factor influencing forecasts remains currency fluctuations.

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In October, the inflation rate expected by Uzbeks began to rise again, the press service of the Central Bank reports.

The average forecast for price growth among the population added 0.2 percentage points and reached 13.7%. The median rate also rose slightly to 11.1%.

In first place among the factors determining expectations remains the dynamics of the exchange rate – it was named by 59% of respondents (versus 65% in September). This is followed by an increase in prices for fuel and energy resources from 49%, as well as an increase in housing and communal services tariffs from 36%.

Over the month, the share of respondents who noted speculative price increases (30%) and increases in wages with benefits (24%) as factors decreased slightly. At the same time, growing transport costs began to be mentioned more often (29%).

Business forecasts for inflation are also rising. However, the current figures are noticeably lower than those at the beginning of the year.

In October, the average inflation expected by entrepreneurs was 14.4% (+0.2 percentage points). The median indicator showed a similar increase – up to 11.7%.

The top three factors influencing the forecasts coincide with the responses of the population. Exchange rate fluctuations lead the way (62%), followed by rising fuel prices (47%) and utility tariffs (37%).

In addition, a significant proportion of respondents noted the costs of transport (32%). At the same time, the number of participants who highlighted rising wages (24%) and problems with the supply of imported raw materials (15%) decreased.

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