The Central Bank of Uzbekistan forecasts a GDP growth of 5.5-6% for the current year, buoyed by the continuation of structural reforms aimed at enhancing value addition, labor productivity, reducing the shadow economy, and attracting foreign investments.
According to the regulator's commentary on monetary policy, non-gold export revenues are projected to increase by 10-12%, driven by global price trends for cotton and uranium, as well as boosted production of copper and zinc.
However, the pace of import expenditure is expected to slow down, particularly in the machinery and equipment sectors, due to the high base effect. There also remain risks of increased costs for the transportation of imported goods.
Experts anticipate a gradual decrease in global oil and natural gas prices, although new geopolitical tensions and cold weather could potentially drive them up. Copper price quotations might decline if China's economy slows down, but supply disruptions and a weaker dollar could have the opposite effect. Stable demand for gold is expected to maintain prices around $2,000 per troy ounce.
Following a sharp increase in 2022, the World Bank anticipates a gradual reduction in prices for staple foods. Yet, a resurgence in prices due to adverse weather, rising energy costs, and trade restrictions is not ruled out.
Modest growth acceleration is predicted for the USA and the Eurozone — up to 2.1% and 0.9%, respectively. However, tight monetary conditions and diminished demand suggest growth may fall short of expectations.
The slowdown could extend to Uzbekistan's key trading partners — Kazakhstan, Türkiye and China — with the exception of Russia. The growth in Russia, spurred by military industry and import substitution, has led to a revision of short-term economic forecasts.
