Inflation expectations in Uzbekistan surge as businesses and citizens brace for price hikes
Both the population and businesses increasingly cite wage and pension increases as key factors.
Inflation expectations among people in Uzbekistan surged sharply in August after reaching a record low, according to the Central Bank.
The average expected price increase over the next 12 months, as forecasted by citizens, reached 13.1% — a 1.1% rise from July. The median figure also rose by one percent, reaching 11.1%.
Residents of the Tashkent region topped the list with the highest expectations (14.6%), followed closely by the capital and Syrdarya region (14.4%). The lowest forecasts came from Fergana and Navoi (10.9%), as well as Khorezm (12.1%).
The IT sector had the highest inflation expectations among industries (15.2%), followed by manufacturing (14.5%) and construction (14.3%). The lowest expectations were observed among agricultural workers (11.1%), household services (11.4%), and retail (11.9%).
Respondents with incomes between 2–3 million UZS saw a significant rise in inflation expectations, with forecasts reaching 13.6%, compared to 11.8% a month earlier.
The group with the highest income continued to provide the most elevated forecasts — 14.7% for those earning 15 million UZS or more, and 14.4% for those earning between 10–15 million UZS. Citizens with incomes below 2 million UZS expect a 12.1% rise, while those earning 3–4 million UZS expect a 12.3% increase.
The leading factor influencing inflation forecasts remains utility tariffs (49%), followed by fuel prices (46%) and currency fluctuations (42%). The share of respondents citing wages and pensions as a factor jumped significantly to 40%, nearly double the percentage from July.
For businesses, the average inflation forecast increased by 1.3% to 12.5%. The median forecast rose by 0.8%, reaching 10.7%.
Jizzakh (13.6%), Andijan (13.4%), and Tashkent region (13.3%) topped the regional list for business inflation expectations. The most optimistic forecasts came from Fergana (10.6%), Surkhandarya (11.4%), and Khorezm (11.7%).
By industry, the highest forecasts came from education, IT, and culture (14.1%). The lowest expectations were recorded among craftsmen (9.9%) and construction workers (12.1%).
As with the general population, inflation expectations in business are heavily influenced by utility tariffs (47%), energy prices (45%), and exchange rates (42%). Wage growth (28%) and transportation costs (31%) also had a notable impact.
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