Consumer confidence index in Uzbekistan climbs while inflation fears mount

The consumer confidence index in Uzbekistan has continued to rise for the second consecutive month, according to a study by Freedom Finance Global.

In August, the index reached 130.9, adding 2.5 points compared to July and 1.3 points compared to August 2023. All five sub-indices that contribute to the overall index showed improvement.

The largest growth was noted in the sub-index for favorable conditions for major purchases, which reached a record high of 92.3, a 3.5-point increase from the previous month.

Across the country, 41.8% of respondents agreed that now is the best time for major spending. The highest percentage was recorded in Navoi region, while the most significant improvement (from 32.7% to 42.6%) was observed in Jizzakh. In Tashkent, only 36.2% shared this view.

The sub-index for changes in personal financial situations reached 130.6, marking the largest year-over-year growth with a 6-point increase. 57.7% of respondents reported improvements in their financial situation.

Fergana region led the sub-index with 62.9% positive responses, while in Tashkent, half of the respondents noted improvements. In Syrdarya region, the figure rose to 58%.

At the same time, inflationary perceptions intensified. Over the past year, 48.2% of respondents noticed a significant rise in prices (compared to 42.6% in July), while on a monthly basis, nearly 32% noted price increases (up from 22.7%).

Most frequently, participants cited meat and poultry as the most expensive products (57.8% compared to 45% last month). Only 32% pointed to utility tariffs, and 13.7% to medicines.

20% of respondents expect inflation to accelerate in the coming month (compared to 11.4% in July), while 27% expect inflation to rise over the year (up from 24.7% last month).

Meanwhile, devaluation expectations have decreased: 49% expect the sum to weaken over the next year (down from 53% in July), and 32.2% expect it to weaken in the coming month (down from 33%). Uzbekistan was the only country in the study where this indicator decreased in August.