Inflation expectations in Uzbekistan drop to 11.2% as January optimism returns

Inflation expectations among Uzbekistan’s residents and business circles began to trend downward again in January after a brief surge at the end of last year. According to the latest survey report from the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, the average forecast for price growth over the next 12 months decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 11.2%.

The median indicator hit a multi-month low, falling by 0.4 percentage points to 9.5%. This shift suggests a growing sense of cautious optimism regarding the country's price stability in the medium term.

Regional and professional disparities in price forecasts

Inflation sentiment varies significantly across the republic. Tashkent continues to lead the regions with the highest expected inflation at 12.7%, followed closely by the Fergana region (12.3%) and the Republic of Karakalpakstan (12.1%). Conversely, the most optimistic projections were recorded in Navoi (9.5%), Surkhandarya (9.9%), and Khorezm (10%).

Expectations also diverge across different professional sectors:

Highest expectations: Government employees (13%), medical workers (12.8%), and industrial workers (12.6%).
Lowest expectations: Agricultural workers (9.4%), trade sector employees (9.6%), and tourism professionals (9.9%).

The report also highlights a correlation between income levels and inflation fears. Citizens earning more than UZS 30 million per month projected the highest inflation at 16.1%, while those in the UZS 20–30 million and UZS 15–20 million brackets cited 14.5% and 13.5%, respectively. In contrast, individuals with monthly incomes between UZS 2–4 million provided a much lower estimate of 9.6%.

Key drivers of inflationary concern

The survey identified several primary factors weighing on the public's mind. Rising utility tariffs remain the top concern, cited by 48% of respondents. Other significant factors include:

Energy prices (47%);
Transportation costs (30%);
Currency fluctuations (24%, up from 23% in December).

Business sentiment and sectoral outlook

The business community shared a similar downward trend, with entrepreneurs’ expected inflation rate falling to 10.8% – a 0.3 percentage point decrease from December. However, the median figure for businesses saw a slight uptick to 9.8%.

Regionally, businesses in Surkhandarya (11.6%), Kashkadarya (11.1%), and Karakalpakstan (11.1%) held the highest expectations, while Tashkent dropped to fourth place at 11%. The lowest business forecasts were found in the Tashkent (10.1%), Bukhara (10.3%), and Namangan (10.4%) regions.

Among industries, the transport (12.8%), education (12.7%), and IT (11.8%) sectors reported the highest concerns. For businesses, the rising cost of energy became the most cited pressure point (44%), slightly overtaking the hike in utility tariffs (43%).