EDB forecasts Uzbekistan’s policy rate to drop to 13% by late 2026

According to the analysis by the international financial institution, the current economic landscape in the republic provides a window of opportunity for monetary easing. The policy rate has remained steady at 14% per annum since March 2025.

The EDB highlights that Uzbekistan's real interest rate currently stands at approximately 6.8%, indicating relatively tight monetary conditions. However, as inflation trends toward the official 5% target, the Central Bank will gain more flexibility.

"As inflation continues to approach the target level, the Central Bank will have the opportunity to start lowering the policy rate – we expect it to reach approximately 13% in the second half of 2026," the EDB stated.

The report also notes that tight monetary policy has successfully slowed price growth, with inflation reaching its lowest level in nine years. Factors such as a stable national currency and import price dynamics are contributing to this trend. The EDB expects inflation to drop below 7% by the end of the current year and settle at 6.7% by the close of 2026.

The analysis reflects on the robust performance of the Uzbek economy, which saw growth accelerate to 7.7% in 2025. While the GDP growth rate for 2026 is expected to be slightly lower at 6.7%, the EDB emphasizes that the economy entered the year with significant momentum.

Key performance indicators for January 2026 include:

• Industrial production: Increased by 7.8% year-on-year.
• Retail trade turnover: Grew by 14.7% compared to the same period last year.

Both indicators outperformed their 2025 averages of 6.8% and 11.2%, respectively. The EDB concludes that despite a slight projected moderation in overall GDP growth compared to last year's high base, the industrial and consumer sectors remain major drivers of the national economy.