If the new forecast materializes, economic growth will surpass last year's 7.7% and reach its highest level in recent years.
The ministry now expects inflation to average 6.5% in 2026, down from the earlier projection of 7%, while the unemployment rate is forecast at 4.5%.
According to the fiscal strategy, Uzbekistan's nominal GDP is expected to reach UZS 2.183 quadrillion by the end of the year, approximately $180 billion. This is UZS 207 trillion higher than the figure approved in the 2026 State Budget Law, with the growth forecast revised upward by 1.5 percentage points.
For comparison, the economy expanded by 7.7% in 2025 despite an initial forecast of 6.6%. GDP growth reached 8.7% in the first quarter of 2026.
The ministry attributed the upward revision to higher global gold prices, faster growth in service exports driven by rising tourist arrivals, greater utilization of industrial capacity, and the relative stability of the Uzbek soum against the U.S. dollar.
Services remain the main growth driver
Market services are expected to remain the largest contributor to economic growth in 2026, with output projected to increase by 16.6%, compared with the initial forecast of 14.5%.
Industrial production is forecast to grow by 8%, up from the previous estimate of 6.4%, while construction is expected to expand by 12.4%, compared with 10.2% previously. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries are projected to grow by 5%, up from the earlier forecast of 4.2%.
The ministry expects domestic demand to be supported by a 20% increase in non-gold exports, 12.9% growth in fixed capital investment, and remittance inflows remaining about 10% higher than a year earlier. The consolidated fiscal deficit is expected to remain within the government's target of 3% of GDP.
In the energy sector, electricity generation is projected to reach 93.3 billion kWh, including 14.3 billion kWh, or 15.3% of total output, from solar and wind power plants. Natural gas production is forecast at 25.4 billion cubic meters.
The automotive industry is expected to produce 510,000 passenger vehicles during the year. Of that total, 396,000 are projected to be manufactured by UzAuto Motors, 69,000 by ADM Jizzakh, 40,000 by BYD Uzbekistan Factory, and 5,000 by Volkswagen.
