Uzbekistan raises 2026 economic growth forecast to 8.1%

If the new forecast materializes, economic growth will surpass last year's 7.7% and reach its highest level in recent years.

The ministry now expects inflation to average 6.5% in 2026, down from the earlier projection of 7%, while the unemployment rate is forecast at 4.5%.

According to the fiscal strategy, Uzbekistan's nominal GDP is expected to reach UZS 2.183 quadrillion by the end of the year, approximately $180 billion. This is UZS 207 trillion higher than the figure approved in the 2026 State Budget Law, with the growth forecast revised upward by 1.5 percentage points.

For comparison, the economy expanded by 7.7% in 2025 despite an initial forecast of 6.6%. GDP growth reached 8.7% in the first quarter of 2026.

The ministry attributed the upward revision to higher global gold prices, faster growth in service exports driven by rising tourist arrivals, greater utilization of industrial capacity, and the relative stability of the Uzbek soum against the U.S. dollar.

Services remain the main growth driver

Market services are expected to remain the largest contributor to economic growth in 2026, with output projected to increase by 16.6%, compared with the initial forecast of 14.5%.

Industrial production is forecast to grow by 8%, up from the previous estimate of 6.4%, while construction is expected to expand by 12.4%, compared with 10.2% previously. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries are projected to grow by 5%, up from the earlier forecast of 4.2%.

The ministry expects domestic demand to be supported by a 20% increase in non-gold exports, 12.9% growth in fixed capital investment, and remittance inflows remaining about 10% higher than a year earlier. The consolidated fiscal deficit is expected to remain within the government's target of 3% of GDP.

In the energy sector, electricity generation is projected to reach 93.3 billion kWh, including 14.3 billion kWh, or 15.3% of total output, from solar and wind power plants. Natural gas production is forecast at 25.4 billion cubic meters.

The automotive industry is expected to produce 510,000 passenger vehicles during the year. Of that total, 396,000 are projected to be manufactured by UzAuto Motors, 69,000 by ADM Jizzakh, 40,000 by BYD Uzbekistan Factory, and 5,000 by Volkswagen.

Growth in the services sector is expected to be driven by expanding trade, tourism, transport, financial services and service infrastructure. The government aims to increase the number of foreign visitors to 16 million and raise tourism service exports to $5 billion. To support that target, authorities plan to open 483 new accommodation facilities, including 86 hotels.

Budget forecasts revised upward

Reflecting the stronger economic outlook, the ministry has also revised its budget projections.

Consolidated budget revenues for 2026 are now expected to reach UZS 589.7 trillion, up from the previously approved UZS 515.8 trillion. The revision represents an increase of UZS 73.9 trillion, or 14.3%.

Consolidated expenditures have been raised from UZS 567.7 trillion to UZS 638.4 trillion, an increase of UZS 70.7 trillion, or about 12.5%. Despite the higher spending, the overall fiscal deficit is projected at UZS 65.4 trillion, equivalent to 3% of GDP.

According to the ministry, higher projected revenues reflect stronger growth in manufacturing, construction and services, an expanding tax base, an increasing number of taxpayers, elevated gold and copper prices, measures to reduce the shadow economy, and the introduction of risk-based tax administration.

Additional spending is planned to finance social and infrastructure programs, as well as strategic projects approved during the fiscal year.

State budget revenues alone are now forecast to reach UZS 439.7 trillion by year-end, 19% above the approved target. Value-added tax receipts are expected to total UZS 93 trillion, corporate income tax UZS 96.5 trillion, and personal income tax UZS 49.8 trillion. The ministry said stronger-than-expected economic activity and higher gold and copper prices are the main factors behind the upward revision.

According to the baseline scenario outlined in the fiscal strategy, economic growth is expected to moderate to 6.9% in 2027 before accelerating to 7.1% in 2028 and 7.4% in 2029. Inflation is projected to decline to 5%–6% in 2027 and stabilize at 5% over the following two years.