Central Bank expects Uzbekistan’s inflation to fall to 5% in 2027

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The Central Bank expects inflation in Uzbekistan to fall to 5% in 2027, bringing it to the government’s medium-term target after several years of higher price growth. The forecast is included in the bank’s updated Monetary Policy Review.

Central Bank expects Uzbekistan’s inflation to fall to 5% in 2027

Inflation is projected at 6.5% by the end of 2026, compared with 7.3% in 2025 and 9.8% in 2024. The Central Bank expects inflation to converge to the 5% target in 2027 and remain around that level from 2028.

The bank also expects Uzbekistan’s economy to grow by 7.5–8% in 2026, with growth moderating to around 6–7% in 2028.

The Central Bank said relatively stable economic activity in Uzbekistan’s main trading partners is expected to support external demand for Uzbek exports and remittance inflows. At the same time, volatility in energy prices and possible increases in logistics costs remain key external inflation risks.

The International Monetary Fund expects global economic growth to slow to 3% in 2026 before accelerating to 3.4% in 2027. The IMF said geopolitical shocks and high energy costs are likely to weigh on economic activity in the short term, while a gradual recovery in energy supplies and logistics chains could support growth next year.