Zarina Nurberdiyeva, head of the Central Bank’s Public Relations and Communications Policy Department, reported the figures at a briefing on October 21.
Core inflation stood at 5.5% in September. However, the growing share of goods and services recording annual price increases of more than 5% indicates that inflationary pressure remains in the economy, Nurberdiyeva said.
Inflation expectations among households and businesses have also declined, but more slowly than overall inflation. This suggests that inflation inertia continues to influence price-setting decisions.
According to the Central Bank, several factors have contributed to stronger aggregate demand, including increased investment activity, rising household incomes and remittances, high budget expenditure execution and faster growth in non-gold exports.
At the same time, some components of demand have shown signs of stabilizing in recent months. Credit growth has gradually returned to more moderate levels, while positive real interest rates have encouraged households to save.
The Central Bank warned that both external and domestic risks could add to inflationary pressure. High global prices for raw materials, food and energy can feed into domestic prices through imports and higher transport and logistics costs.
The appreciation of the soum’s real effective exchange rate over the course of the year has helped offset some of this pressure. The currency’s strengthening against the currencies of Uzbekistan’s main trading partners has made imported goods less inflationary.
Domestically, the liberalization of regulated prices remains a potential source of additional inflation. Adjustments to these prices could increase production costs and service prices, the regulator said.
The Central Bank considers tight monetary conditions necessary to contain these risks and ensure a sustained decline in inflation expectations. It said it would continue maintaining the monetary conditions needed to bring inflation down to its 5% target by the end of 2027.
In April 2026, annual inflation had slowed to 7%, its lowest level in a decade. At the time, the Central Bank projected that inflation would fall to 6.5% by the end of 2026.
