Inflation expectations ease among households and businesses in Uzbekistan

19:424134 min

Inflation expectations among Uzbekistan’s population fell to 8.7% in September 2026, down from 9.8% in August, while expectations among businesses declined from 9.6% to 9.2%, according to a monthly survey by the Central Bank.

Photo: Fotolia

Inflation expectations ease among households and businesses in Uzbekistan — Photo: Fotolia

The survey covered 2,726 residents and 1,043 businesses across the country.

The figures represent weighted average estimates. The median inflation expectation among households remained unchanged at 8%, while the median among businesses rose from 8% to 9%.

People’s perceptions of inflation over the past 12 months also eased, with the average estimate falling to 9.2% in September from 10.1% a month earlier. The median estimate stood at 8%.

Among different population groups, pensioners reported the highest inflation expectations at 12.4%, followed by workers in household services at 10.6% and transport services at 9.9%. The lowest expectations were recorded among retail workers (7.8%) and students (7.9%).

Among businesses, the highest expectations were reported in transport services (10.7%), handicrafts (9.8%) and trade (9.7%). Tourism businesses had the lowest expectations at 7.5%.

Geographically, residents of Tashkent reported the highest inflation expectations at 11.6%. The lowest figures were recorded in Khorezm region (6.8%) and Namangan region (7.1%).

In the capital, 17% of respondents expected prices to rise by 17% or more over the next 12 months. In Khorezm region, 70% expected inflation to remain at or below 8%.

Among businesses, inflation expectations were highest in Samarkand region (10.2%) and Fergana region (10.1%), while Kashkadarya region recorded the lowest figure at 7.5%.

Expectations also varied significantly by income. Respondents earning more than UZS 30 million a month expected inflation to reach 14.4%, compared with 11.3% among those earning between UZS 20 million and UZS 30 million. The figure stood at 7.6% among people with monthly incomes of up to UZS 2 million.

A similar gap emerged in perceptions of inflation: respondents in the highest-income group estimated it at 15.9%, while those in the lowest-income group put it at 7.7%.

What is driving inflation expectations?

Rising fuel and energy prices remained the most frequently cited factor among households, mentioned by 50% of respondents. Higher utility bills came second at 38%, down from 53% in August.