​The US Pulling Out of Syria: Winners and Losers

Ordering to withdraw 2 000 troops out of Syria in less than a 100 days and planning to cut short the air war against Isis, Donald Trump sett off a wave of discontent among Kurds and Israel, appeased Turkey and set Russia and Iran loose.

On December 19, Trump twitted: «We have defeated [the Islamic State group] in Syria, my only reason for being there during the Trump Presidency». What precipitated this decision is the following statement of Trump, declared on Twitter: «Why are we fighting for our enemy, Syria, by staying & killing ISIS for them, Russia, Iran & other locals? Time to focus on our Country & bring our youth back home where they belong!»

Because of such an isolationism-like step, made by Trump, some actors descending into losing position, while some ends up winning. Lets look at who leaves with what in current situation.

Losers

Kurds

With the announcement on the withdrawal Kurds — the main forces on the side of the US waging the ground war against ISIS — harshly condemned and described the move as a «blatant betrayal». What foregrounded this condemnation is that Kurds ends up in a strategic uncertainty, because without the American support Kurds might be torn by Turkey and the Assad regime. «We have every right to be afraid», says Arin Sheikmos, a Kurdish journalist and commentator, «If the Americans pull out and leave us to the Turks or the [Syrian] regime, our destiny will be like the Kurds of Iraqi Kurdistan in 1991. Neither the regime, nor Iran nor Turkey, will accept our presence here». And, abandoning the Kurdish allies, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis other officials argued, would cripple future American efforts to gain the trust of local fighters for counterterrorism operations, including in Afghanistan, Yemen and Somalia.

Israel

Even if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the withdrawal of US troops from Syria will not impede their ability to defend itself against regional threats, Israel is among the losers concerning with the Iranian forces across border. «This [American pull out] leaves us alone in the arena with the Russians», said Michael Herzog, an Israel-based fellow of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former Israeli defense official. «We are alone in the battle against Iran in Syria».

Winners

Russia

Russia is among the most important winners and reaps immediate benefits from the withdrawal. “Donald`s right, and I agree with him», said Vladimir Putin. “If the USA made that decision then it’s the right one,” Putin said during a nationally televised press conference on Thursday, repeating complaints that US troop deployments in Syria were illegal because they were not agreed upon with the Assad government. There is a reason for Putin to be pleased at. Not only has Russia saved the Assad regime with mere 5 000 troops and a few dozen fixed-wing aircraft, but also it is reasserting itself as an international agenda-setter for the first time since the end of the Cold War, because the fate of Syria will mainly be decided by Moscow. Also, as was argued by Jim Mattis that a withdrawal would, essentially, surrender Western influence in Syria to Russia and Iran.

Iran

The US pulling out sets Iranian proxy efforts loose. The shortest and fastest route between Tehran and Damascus (the Southern Route) is presently closed to Iranian traffic, thanks to the US presence at the border crossing in Tanf. Controlling the route between Syria and Iraq and a mere 8 miles from Jordan, the US contained the Iranian influence in the the Middle East. Thus, pulling out out of Syria the US creates a fertile soil for Iran to expand its military presence in Syria and consolidate links with its allies in Lebanon.

Turkey

Cozying up with Russia, Turkey achieves the higher end. Lately, relations between the US and Turkey stumbled over the Kurdish Issue. Divergence in positions pushed Ankara to establish a tactic alliance with Russia, with Erdogan reducing even to apologizing for downing the Russian jet, while before he were to staunchly maintain a no-apology position. After, he started flirting with Russia negotiating over buying an S-400 Russian missile defense system rather than the U.S.-built Patriot system; and, what is interesting, announcing to start offensive against the US-backed Kurds, Washington decided to pull out. And, after President Trump’s phone call with Turkey on Friday, Turkey agreed to buy the U.S. system for $3.5 billion. Thus, as a result of the the US withdrawal, not only does Turkey ends up with advanced weapons systems, but also it gained a decisive voice to delineate the sphere of influence in the regions and a clear path to attack Kurdish forces.

To conclude, Israel and Kurds are left alone, may be, for a while, while the hands of Russia and Iran are unleashed to decide the fate of Syria, and Turkey turns out to be a big winner. Of course, all gains and losses are tactical though, but repercussions of the US pullout might strategically reshape the positions of the actors, while the Middle East will strategically stay in the condition of «war of all against all».

Otabek Akromov