08:29 / 02.04.2020
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Future of Humanity Institute publishes possible long-term coronavirus pandemic forecast for Uzbekistan

 A long-term coronavirus pandemic forecast for 150 countries has been published by researchers from the Future of Humanity Institute (University of Oxford). A forecast has also been compiled for Uzbekistan (the country’s population in the calculations is indicated at 31.9 million people).

Photo: KUN.UZ

 Researchers present 4 main scenarios for our country.

 1. The spread of coronavirus is not controlled, no attempts are made to avoid it, the situation is left to chance.

 - With this model, each person infects an average of another 2.6 people with this disease.

 - The number of infected people at the same time will be from 88 thousand to 1.3 million people (0.3-4% of the total population).

 - The total number of infected people will be 18-23 million people (58-73%).

 - The pandemic will peak in June, then decline sharply. The second wave of the pandemic will begin in November and continue until March 2021.

 2. The spread of coronavirus is reduced by 20%, moderate quarantine, 35-50% of people are isolated, border closure, traffic restriction.

 - With this model, each person infects an average of 2 more people with the disease.

 - The number of infected people at the same time will be from 130 thousand to 820 thousand (0.4-2.6% of the total population).

 - The total number of patients will be 14–21 million (45-67%).

 - The pandemic will peak in July, then drop sharply. The second wave of the pandemic begins in December and continues until March 2021.

 3. The spread of coronavirus is reduced by 50%, continuous quarantine, 65-80% of the people are isolated, going out only if necessary, mass testing, closing borders, restricting traffic.

 - With this model, each person will infect an average of 1.3 more people with this disease.

 - The number of people infected at the same time will be up to 11 thousand people (0.03% of the total population).

 - The total number of infected people will be 520 thousand (1.6%).

 - The peak of the pandemic will not be observed.

 4. A decrease in the rate of spread of coronavirus by 80%, strict quarantine, 90-95% of the people are isolated, access to the street is prohibited, mass testing, traffic is completely prohibited.

 - An infected person with this model on average infects another 0.5 people with the disease.

 - The number of people infected at the same time will be from 210 to 3.4 thousand (0.01% of the total population).

 - The total number of patients will be 6.6-9.8 thousand (0.02-0.03%).

 - The peak of the pandemic will not be observed, it will be fully under control.

 Researchers noted that these results may differ from real ones, because:

 - the study was based only on indicators obtained over the past 2 months;

 - the seasonal nature of the virus and its response to weather conditions were not taken into account;

 - during the testing process, technological progress, the method of finding contacts and vaccination were not taken into account.

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