The Central Bank of Uzbekistan last quarter set its forecast for GDP growth at 5.8%, but it has now raised it to 6.8%.
The Central Bank of Uzbekistan re- estimated the rate of economic growth in the first half of the year.
What are the forecasts for GDP?
According to the updated forecasts, real GDP growth in 2021 is expected to be in the range of 5.8-6.8%, which is higher by 1-1.3% than the initial (4.5-5.5%) forecasts for the Q1.
The Central Bank named the key factors supporting economic growth:
- continuation of fiscal stimulation of the economy in 2021;
- recovery in aggregate demand amid unchanged monetary conditions in Q4 2020 and H1 2021;
- accelerating private investment as a result of ongoing structural reforms to liberalize the economy.
What are inflation expectations?
The regulator left the inflation forecast for 2021 unchanged at the level of 9-10%.
How much will consumer spending increase?
According to forecasts, real growth in end-user spending is expected to be 7-8%. In particular, household consumption expenditures are projected at 7.5-8.5%, and public administration expenditures – at 7-8%.
Real growth in consumption is due to the emergence of deferred demand caused by the pandemic and the recovery of household income.
What are the forecasts for the volume of investments?
According to forecasts, by the end of the year the volume of investments in fixed assets will grow by 13-18%, in particular, the volume of centralized investments – by 24-26%, and the volume of decentralized investments – by 10-16%.
Exports may rise relative to imports. After a sharp decline in exports (excluding gold exports) due to the pandemic last year, domestic and foreign economic activity is expected to grow 20-25% this year and imports 12-15%.
