5 million climate migrants may appear in Central Asia by 2050

On November 28, at a press conference dedicated to the participation of the delegation of Uzbekistan in the 27th meeting of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, forecasts were made about climate migrants that will appear on Earth in the next 30 years.

According to Ibratjon Karimov, Deputy General Director of Uzhydromet, by 2050, 5 million people in Central Asian countries may become climate migrants.

“In the next 30 years, the number of climate migrants in the countries of Central Asia will reach 5 million, and they will be forced to leave their places of residence and move to other regions,” he said.

It turns out that according to the World Bank estimates, by 2050, a total of 216 million people in 6 regions of the world may become “climate migrants” precisely because of climate change, drought, water shortages and adverse bioclimatic conditions.

Taking immediate and concerted action to reduce global emissions and support green, inclusive and sustainable development could reduce climate migration by as much as 80%.

Climate change is a powerful driver of internal migration, as it affects people’s livelihoods and drastically reduces the quality of life in areas most affected by it. By 2050, the number of internal “climate” migrants in Sub-Saharan Africa could reach 86 million, in East Asia and the Pacific - 49 million, in South Asia - 40 million, in North Africa - 19 million, in Latin America - 17 million, and in Eastern Europe and Central Asia - 5 million.

Previously, a number of policy recommendations have been formulated that can help mitigate the drivers of climate migration and prepare for expected migration flows, including:

ꞏ to reduce global emissions and do everything possible to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement on temperature;
ꞏ to fully ensure that the factor of internal climate migration is taken into account in the long-term planning of environmentally friendly, sustainable and inclusive development;
ꞏ to prepare for each stage of migration so that internal climate migration can become an adaptation strategy and bring positive development outcomes;
ꞏ to invest in an in-depth understanding of the drivers of internal climate migration to inform targeted policy development.

It also became known that by 2050, up to 5.1 million “climate” migrants, or 2.3% of the total projected population in the upper part of the pessimistic baseline scenario, could appear in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Of these, up to 2.4 million “climate” migrants will live in Central Asia (on average under the pessimistic baseline scenario).

The Fergana Valley (in the territory of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan), the lands around the city of Tashkent and the low-lying regions of southern Tajikistan (including the city of Dushanbe), as well as the more densely populated cities of northern Kazakhstan (Karaganda, Nur-Sultan and Kostanay) will become areas of influx of “climate” migrants.

“This is due to the expected increase in water availability and crop yields in these parts of Central Asia,” the experts said.

It is expected that the areas along the southern border of Kazakhstan, the areas adjacent to the Fergana Valley in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, as well as the lands around Bishkek, will become the outflow zones of “climate” migrants.

“This is due to the projected decline in water availability and crop yields in these parts of Central Asia. For the same reasons, smaller areas of eastern Turkmenistan and southern Uzbekistan, located along the Amu Darya River, are also considered as potential outflow zones for “climate” migrants,” the report concludes.