The round table was moderated by Trace Capital Holdings Managing Director Timothy Yun.
He stressed that reforms are being carried out in Uzbekistan, the process of digitalization and automation is underway, and the position of banks is strengthening. At the same time, the topic of recession is especially relevant against the background of the fact that the world economy is experiencing a significant increase in interest rates, a sharp jump in inflation and price volatility in commodity markets. Many countries have faced unexpected costs during the COVID-19 pandemic, the economy is being affected by reduced food supplies amid isolated local conflicts, the disruption of global supply chains and continued de-globalization processes, and many other factors.
At the same time, the countries of Central Asia may have their own development scenario. Experts from international financial organizations expressed their opinions.
“For the current year, we can say that there are more risks. The world community is faced with a number of serious problems. In particular, inflation in the US increased due to the late tightening of monetary policy. In addition, China was affected by the pandemic and quarantine, and Europe failed to switch to renewable energy,” said Marco Mantovanelli, WB Resident Representative in Uzbekistan.
The expert noted that economists’ forecasts are based on the situation in the world. Their assessments are influenced by indicators of inflation, stability or, conversely, destabilization. He is confident that the financial sector will experience stress in the future. Forecasts for the real economy may worsen.
In addition, government debt obligations play a role. The unstable situation in the world can affect prices in the world. The main inflation, which does not take into account food products and the energy sector, will remain at a stable level, the specialist believes.
“Productivity and attraction of investments, including for climate change, liberalization of supplies, employment of the population, especially women, which we heard about in the speech of the President of Uzbekistan, can change the situation in the country's economy,” the expert believes.
He noted that the Central Asian market is waiting for the flattening of the growth curve in relation to inflation, commodity prices may rise.
“Risks are related to the international environment. Uzbekistan is a young country, these are new personnel who need to be employed in the future. The economy must create new jobs, and they can be organized at the expense of the private sector,” Marco Mantovanelli said.
