Shavkat Mirziyoyev: Global institutions losing effectiveness amid rising economic risks

At the outset, the president addressed the broader global economic context.

“The world today is no longer what it used to be. The issue is not just about tariffs or their levels. The international institutions that for many years ensured stable relations and mutual trust between nations – along with the rules and norms they established – are now becoming increasingly ineffective.

“Of course, these developments can have a cascading effect, leading to a slowdown in the global economy and a decline in international trade,” said the president.

Forecasts suggest that rising tariffs alone could shrink global trade volumes by $3.5 trillion and drive global inflation to 7.5–8 percent.

“The fact that international financial markets lost $10 trillion in just three to four days should serve as a serious ‘alarm bell’ for us.

“The greatest risk is the potential disruption of supply and value chains across the world – similar to what occurred during the pandemic.

“This scenario could be particularly damaging to key ‘driver’ industries that hold a significant share in global exports, such as textiles, electronics, automotive, and food industries,” the president noted.

It was also pointed out that countries facing the highest import tariffs may adopt aggressive trade policies in order to enter the same markets where Uzbekistan exports its products. This could result in intense competition in markets for yarn, fabric, textiles, and household appliances where Uzbekistan has already established a presence.

According to an analysis by Harvard University, Uzbekistan’s position in the Economic Complexity Index has improved by 25 places over the past five years, rising from 105th to 80th place.

Today, 162 types of Uzbek products are officially recognized as having a "competitive advantage in global markets."

As a result, the country’s exports have increased 2.2 times in recent years, and foreign trade turnover has reached 57 percent of the GDP.

“This is a striking figure that reflects just how dependent our economy is on foreign markets,” the president emphasized.