Inflation expectations hold steady among public, ease slightly among businesses — CBU

The average forecast for price growth over the next 12 months stood at 14.2%, the same level as in March. The median forecast edged down marginally by 0.1 percentage points to 11.4%.

Residents of Tashkent reported the highest inflation expectations among all regions at 16.9%, followed by Fergana (15.6%) and Tashkent region (15.4%). The lowest expectations were observed in Navoi (11.8%), Karakalpakstan (12.2%), and Kashkadarya (12.4%).

Across professions, the highest forecasts came from respondents in industry (17.2%), construction (15.9%), transportation, and the public sector (both at 14.8%). More optimistic views were found in agriculture (12.8%), catering services (12.9%), and students (13%).

In terms of income brackets:

• People earning above 15 million UZS per month gave the highest estimate: 18.4%.
• The 7–10 million UZS group reported 16.4%, while those earning 10–15 million UZS lowered their forecast to 14.7%.
• The lowest expectations were among those earning 3–4 million UZS (12.1%) and under 2 million UZS (12.7%).

When asked about key inflation drivers, 59% of respondents cited rising utility tariffs. This was followed by increased energy prices (47%), exchange rate fluctuations (38%), and transportation costs (29%).

Among businesses, inflation expectations slightly declined, with the average forecast at 12.8% (down 0.2 percentage points) and the median at 10.6% (down 0.3 points).

Regionally, the highest business forecasts came from Samarkand (13.8%), Fergana (13.7%), Tashkent, and Bukhara (both at 13.6%). The lowest were in Karakalpakstan (9.7%), Kashkadarya (11.3%), and Tashkent region (12.1%).

By sector, the highest expectations were observed in construction (15%) and catering (13.5%). The lowest came from craftsmen (10.7%), the IT sector (11.4%), and agribusiness (11.9%).

Just like the general public, 55% of businesses cited rising utility costs as the top inflation driver — a 3% increase from the previous survey. Other major factors included energy prices (46%) and currency dynamics (43%).