EBRD projects Uzbekistan's GDP to expand by 6.5 percent in 2026

Across Central Asia and Mongolia, economic activity remained robust at the beginning of 2026, though the EBRD notes emerging signs of a gradual stabilization. Strong domestic consumption and investments continue to anchor growth throughout the region, with the services sector, construction, and manufacturing serving as the main economic drivers.

However, the bank highlights that prolonged conflicts in the Middle East have intensified global headwinds. This has led to energy price volatility, supply chain disruptions, and decelerating growth in Russia and China – the region's largest trading and economic partners. While overall growth prospects for Central Asia remain firm, the medium-term outlook increasingly depends on the pace of domestic structural reforms and efforts to enhance resilience against external shocks.

Uzbekistan

Official statistics show that Uzbekistan’s economic growth accelerated in the first quarter of 2026, with real GDP rising by 8.7 percent compared to the same period last year. The EBRD attributes this momentum primarily to strong domestic consumption. Higher remittance inflows and rising wages have significantly stimulated the services sector, while industrial manufacturing expanded by 8 percent and construction surged by 15.5 percent. 

The EBRD anticipates a 6.5 percent growth rate for Uzbekistan in 2026 and 6 percent in 2027. The bank notes that faster-than-expected privatization processes could push these figures higher. Conversely, a economic cooldown in Russia and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could stoke inflation and stall progress.

The positive forecast follows a recent update from Fitch Ratings, which revised Uzbekistan’s sovereign outlook from stable to positive.

Kazakhstan

The EBRD expects Kazakhstan’s GDP to grow by 4.7 percent in 2026 and 4.5 percent in 2027. While construction, transport, and manufacturing maintained their upward trajectory in the first quarter, the extractive sector contracted by 11.4 percent due to infrastructure disruptions at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and an incident at the Tengiz oil field. Volatile oil prices, potential bottlenecks along crude export routes, and slowing economies in Russia and China are identified as the main risks for Kazakhstan.

Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan is on track to maintain the highest economic growth rate in the region. The EBRD forecasts the country’s economy to expand by 8.7 percent in 2026 and 7 percent in 2027. First-quarter activity was driven by industry, construction, and trade, with fixed capital investment climbing by 25.5 percent.

However, secondary sanctions imposed by the European Union within its restrictive measures against Russia threaten to weigh on the Kyrgyz economy. The EU’s 20th sanctions package, approved in late April, banned the export of dual-use goods to Kyrgyzstan and tightened oversight on the country's financial and logistics sectors. High energy prices and economic vulnerabilities in Russia pose additional risks.

Tajikistan

Tajikistan’s economy expanded by approximately 8 percent in the first quarter, supported by gains in trade, transport, communications, industry, and electricity generation. The EBRD projects growth rates of 7.9 percent for 2026 and 7 percent for 2027. The bank emphasizes that Tajikistan's primary vulnerability remains its heavy reliance on Russia, where an economic slowdown could severely dent remittance flows from migrant workers.

Turkmenistan

Official data indicates that Turkmenistan’s economy grew by 6.3 percent in the first quarter, fueled by above-target performance in the oil and gas sector and state-backed construction investments. The EBRD forecasts a steady growth rate of 6.3 percent for both 2026 and 2027. Given that the vast majority of Turkmenistan's gas exports are directed to China, the country remains highly exposed to shifts in Chinese market demand.