EBRD forecasts 6.7 percent economic growth in Uzbekistan for 2025

The EBRD forecasts that the economies of Central Asia’s five countries plus Mongolia will grow by an average of 6.1 percent in 2025. This is stated in the Bank’s newly released “Regional Economic Prospects” report.

The report notes that growth will be supported by industrial production, robust domestic demand, investment, higher real wages and an increase in remittances sent by migrant workers.

Positive trends are expected to continue in 2026, though the growth rate may slow to 5.2 percent.

Uzbekistan’s economic growth accelerates

According to the EBRD, Uzbekistan’s economy accelerated in the first half of this year, expanding by 7.2 percent. Growth in the services sector reached 8.2 percent. Such high growth was driven by strong domestic demand, rising real wages and a 28.7 percent increase in remittances.

The Bank also reported improvements in Uzbekistan’s industrial indicators during the reporting period, supported by increased food and metallurgy output. Weakness in natural gas production was offset by high global gold prices.

The EBRD projects Uzbekistan’s economy to grow by 6.7 percent in 2025 and 6 percent in 2026. This expansion will be underpinned by robust domestic consumption and investment, as well as the steady diversification of production, supported by foreign investment.

Regional outlook

The EBRD report forecasts that Central Asian countries will achieve an average of 6.1 percent economic growth in 2025, with the figure likely to decline to 5.2 percent in 2026.

• Kazakhstan – growth of 5.7 percent in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026. The 11.6 percent growth recorded in the first half of 2025 was largely driven by increased oil production at the Tengiz field.
• Kyrgyzstan – the fastest growing economy in the region, projected to expand by 9 percent in 2025 and 6 percent in 2026.
• Mongolia – growth of 5.8 percent in 2025 and 5.5 percent in 2026, driven mainly by agriculture and services.
• Tajikistan – growth of 7.5 percent in 2025 and 5.7 percent in 2026. High gold prices and cooperation with international financial institutions will play a positive role.
• Turkmenistan – growth of 6.3 percent in both 2025 and 2026, with energy and infrastructure projects identified as the main drivers.

The report highlights sharp fluctuations in commodity prices, high dependence on Russian and Chinese markets and the potential decline in remittances as the main risks for the region.

It should be recalled that in August, a Central Bank report showed that real wage growth in Uzbekistan was lagging behind that of neighboring countries.