ADB keeps Uzbekistan’s growth forecast steady but warns of external risks

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has maintained its forecasts for Uzbekistan’s economic growth and inflation, according to the September edition of the Asian Development Outlook.

The ADB expects Uzbekistan’s economy to grow by 6.6% in 2025 and 6.7% in 2026, consistent with its April projections. Inflation forecasts also remain unchanged at 8% for this year and 7% for next year.

In the first half of 2025, Uzbekistan’s economic growth accelerated from 6.5% to 7.2%. Private consumption increased by 9.6%, driven by growth in remittances and wages. Among the fastest-growing sectors were tourism (48.9%), IT (21.9%), transport (11.3%), construction (10.7%), and retail trade (9.7%).

During the same period, budget revenues rose by 19.2%, mainly due to higher VAT, excise, and customs duty collections. Expenditures grew at a more moderate pace – 13.4% – as the government continues to prioritize funding for infrastructure and social sectors in line with the fiscal strategy for 2026–2028.

Gold exports and remittance inflows helped reduce the current account deficit. In June, the Central Bank purchased 11.1 tons of gold, marking a shift in its reserve management policy. Against this backdrop, international rating agencies upgraded Uzbekistan’s sovereign credit outlook: Fitch raised the rating, while S&P Global and Moody’s revised their outlooks from “stable” to “positive.”

According to the ADB, the main risks facing Uzbekistan’s economy include:

• trade tensions that could weaken external demand for exports (excluding gold), including agricultural products, textiles, and industrial goods;
• rising fuel prices and transport costs amid regional instability and higher tariffs;
• persistent inflation expectations, which may require tighter monetary policy and potentially slow down economic activity.