Uzbekistan forecasts 7% GDP growth and stable inflation in 2025

Uzbekistan’s economy is maintaining a strong growth pace in 2025 despite external challenges, Kuchkarov said at the Investor Day event held in Tashkent on October 23. The event was organized by the investment company Franklin Templeton, which manages the National Investment Fund of Uzbekistan, Gazeta.uz reported.

In the first half of the year, GDP grew by 7.2%. According to Kuchkarov, by the end of the year growth is projected to reach around 7% – higher than the initial forecast of 6%. GDP per capita is expected to exceed $3,500, compared to $3,093 at the end of 2024.

The Deputy Prime Minister noted that fiscal consolidation – optimization of public finances – is being implemented as planned and aligns with the country’s medium-term budgetary goals.

“The consolidated budget deficit will amount to the targeted 3% of GDP by year-end. Our fiscal strategy is based on the principles of discipline, efficiency, and sustainability to support inclusive growth and economic resilience,” he said.

Kuchkarov also emphasized that Uzbekistan’s public external debt remains at a manageable and sustainable level.

“According to the latest debt sustainability analysis by the IMF, both the overall debt burden and external debt risk are assessed as low. Public debt indicators remain well below critical thresholds, even under stress-test scenarios,” he said.

He further commented on inflation trends amid rising energy tariffs.

“Inflation is under control despite the liberalization of energy tariffs introduced in early May this year. In September, inflation slowed to 8%. By the end of the year, we expect it to remain at that level, with a target of below 7% for next year,” Kuchkarov stated.