Energy tariff hikes and coal price surge drive inflation higher in Uzbekistan

Annual inflation increased by 0.9 percentage points from May, when it reached a recent low of 5.5%. Despite the rebound, price growth remained 2.3 percentage points lower than in June 2025, when annual inflation stood at 8.7%.

Consumer prices rose by 0.6% in June, compared with seasonal deflation of 0.2% recorded in the same month last year. Since the beginning of the year, prices have increased by 3.3%, down from 4.2% during the corresponding period of 2025.

The statistics committee attributed much of the monthly increase to higher utility tariffs introduced for households. Electricity prices rose by an average of 9.6%, contributing 0.22 percentage points to monthly inflation, while piped natural gas tariffs increased by 10.7%, adding another 0.16 percentage points.

The single biggest factor behind June's inflation, however, was the removal of state price regulation for coal. After coal was excluded from the list of strategically regulated goods, its price more than doubled, rising by a factor of 2.1 and adding 0.48 percentage points to the monthly consumer price index.

Excluding fruit and vegetable prices, the overall monthly increase in consumer prices reached 1.5%, compared with 0.5% in June last year. The annual increase for this measure stood at 6.9%, significantly below the 10.3% recorded a year earlier.

Food prices fell by 1.4% in June, reflecting seasonal factors, following a 1.1% decline in the same month of 2025. Since January, food prices have risen by 2.4%, compared with 1.7% over the same period last year. On an annual basis, food inflation reached 6.3%, slightly above the 6% recorded in June 2025.

Prices for non-food goods increased by 2.3% during the month, marking a sharp acceleration from the 0.2% monthly increase seen a year earlier. Since the beginning of the year, prices in this category have risen by 3.9%, compared with 3.1% in the first half of 2025. Annual non-food inflation, however, slowed to 5.9% from 7.5%.

The cost of paid services increased by 1.8% in June, compared with 0.8% in the same month last year. Service prices have risen by 4.1% since the start of the year, well below the 10.7% increase recorded over the corresponding period of 2025. Annual inflation in the services sector eased to 7.1%, down from 15.8% a year earlier.

Regionally, the fastest monthly price growth was recorded in Khorezm region at 1.0%, followed by Fergana region at 0.9%. Monthly inflation in the remaining regions ranged between 0.3% and 0.7%.

Samarkand region posted the country's highest annual inflation rate at 6.8%, ahead of Kashkadarya region at 6.7% and Andijan region at 6.6%. The lowest annual inflation was recorded in Surkhandarya region, where prices rose by 5.7%.