Uzbekistan projects rising budget deficit through 2028

As it was previously reported, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed the law on Uzbekistan’s state budget for 2026. The projected deficit stands at UZS 60.1 trillion, or 3 percent of GDP, alongside economic growth of 6.6 percent.

The law also sets economic growth targets and budget guidelines for 2027–2028. In 2027, GDP is expected to rise to UZS 2.256 quadrillion, reaching UZS 2.576 quadrillion by the end of 2028.

GDP growth is forecast at 6.8 percent in 2027 and 6.9 percent in 2028. The fastest growth is expected in the services sector, at 14.3 percent and 14.4 percent, respectively. Growth in construction is projected to slow to 8.3 percent and then to 8 percent. Industrial output is expected to expand by 6.7–6.9 percent, while agriculture is projected to grow by 4.3 percent.

After an expected 7 percent in 2026, inflation is projected to ease to 5–6 percent in 2027. In 2028, inflation is expected to reach the Central Bank’s target of 5 percent.

Consolidated budget revenues in 2027 are projected at UZS 584.97 trillion, up 13.4 percent year on year. Of this amount, UZS 425.53 trillion, an increase of 15.3 percent, will come from state budget revenues, while UZS 87.49 trillion, up 11.3 percent, will be allocated to targeted funds.

At the same time, consolidated expenditures are expected to total UZS 644.46 trillion, a 13.5 percent increase from 2026. State budget expenditures are projected to reach UZS 384.93 trillion, up 17.1 percent, while spending from targeted funds is expected to amount to UZS 161.18 trillion, an increase of 8.6 percent. An additional UZS 26.4 trillion, up 18 percent, is expected to be raised for government programs through external borrowing.

In 2028, consolidated budget revenues are forecast to rise to UZS 663.2 trillion, up 13.4 percent, while expenditures are expected to increase to UZS 732.55 trillion, a 13.7 percent rise. Spending on government programs financed by external debt is projected to reach UZS 31.67 trillion, up 20 percent.

The overall consolidated budget deficit is expected to total UZS 68.36 trillion in 2027, an increase of 13.7 percent. By the end of 2028, it is projected to reach UZS 78.11 trillion, up 14.3 percent.

Public debt repayment costs are expected to amount to UZS 51.34 trillion in 2027 and UZS 72.18 trillion in 2028. For comparison, UZS 49.198 trillion has been allocated for public debt servicing in the current year.