Migration and uneven development widen regional income divide in Uzbekistan

Income disparities between Uzbekistan’s wealthiest and poorest regions have widened significantly, with per capita earnings in the richest areas now 3.6 times higher than in the poorest. Experts warn that the gap has moved beyond what is considered “natural” for an urbanizing economy, raising potential social and economic concerns.

Rapid growth in urban incomes

From 2018 to 2025, per capita nominal incomes in Tashkent surged 4.5 times, from UZS 16.2 million to UZS 73.9 million. No other region matched this growth: Fergana region followed with a 3.6-fold increase, while Jizzakh recorded the slowest growth at 2.9 times. By 2025, Tashkent’s per capita income exceeded that of Navoi by nearly 40%, up from 16.5% in 2018.

The difference between the highest- and lowest-income regions has expanded steadily:

• 2018: 2.6 times (Tashkent 16.2M / poorest region 6.3M)
• 2020: 2.7 times (Tashkent 23.5M / poorest 8.7M)
• 2023: 3 times (Tashkent 44.4M / poorest 14.6M)
• 2025: 3.6 times (Tashkent 73.9M / poorest 20.6M)

Wage disparities

Average monthly wages in Uzbekistan reached UZS 6.4 million in 2025, but only Tashkent (10.7M) and Navoi (7.8M) exceeded this level. Regional wage gaps have been growing over recent years, with Tashkent salaries now 2.4–2.5 times higher than in regions such as Kashkadarya.

Economists note that higher incomes in large cities reflect the “agglomeration effect,” where concentration of people and economic activity boosts productivity. Sectors offering higher wages, such as banking, IT, and consulting, are concentrated in major cities, naturally widening regional income gaps.

Internal migration intensifies disparities

The income gap is further exacerbated by population shifts toward Tashkent. In 2025, 252,800 people moved to 14 regions from other areas or abroad, with 121,000 relocating to Tashkent city and region – nearly half of all movers. This influx supplies low-cost labor to urban service, construction, and transport sectors, but also fuels rising housing costs and living expenses, reducing the relative purchasing power of migrants.

Structural factors behind inequality

Several factors contribute to growing regional disparities:

• Declining agricultural employment: Agriculture’s share of GDP fell from 32.2% in 2017 to 17.3% in 2025, reducing rural job opportunities.
• Rapid population growth: Over 600,000 young people enter the labor market annually, straining regional employment capacity.
• Infrastructure concentration: Investors prefer regions with developed infrastructure, leaving many rural areas behind.
• Unequal tax incentives: In 2024, 46% of tax exemptions were concentrated in Tashkent, despite the city representing only 8.3% of the population.
• Dependence on remittances: In several regions, over 20–30% of household income comes from abroad, making local economies vulnerable to external shocks.

Policy implications

While urbanization and internal migration are natural elements of development, experts caution that persistent and one-sided migration toward Tashkent risks social tension and market distortions. To mitigate inequality, infrastructure in other regions, such as electricity, transport, healthcare, and education, needs improvement to attract investment and create local employment opportunities.

International experience shows that connecting underdeveloped regions through roads, airports, and technology parks can redistribute economic activity, promote regional job creation, and gradually reduce disparities. Without such measures, regional inequality in Uzbekistan is likely to deepen, threatening inclusive economic growth.