Uzbekistan’s GDP projected to grow by 7–7.2% in Q1 2026

The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) has released its latest projections for Uzbekistan’s economic performance, estimating that the national GDP will expand by 7–7.2% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year.

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According to CERR analysts, the baseline forecast for GDP growth in January–March 2026 is approximately 7%. This estimate was developed using a dynamic factor model that monitors 35 key monthly and weekly indicators of current economic activity.

The report identifies several primary contributors to this anticipated growth:

Business activity – contributing 3.1 percentage points
Finance and credit sector – contributing 1.0 percentage point
Banking transactions – contributing 0.9 percentage points
Industrial production – contributing 0.6 percentage points
Retail trade – contributing 0.3 percentage points

In addition to traditional modeling, CERR utilized machine learning methods to analyze 250 weekly Google search query indicators across 20 categories. This digital analysis suggests a slightly more optimistic growth rate of 7.2%, establishing a forecast range of 7–7.2% for the quarter.

The analysis of search trends in January 2026 revealed significant year-on-year increases in consumer interest across several sectors:

Internet and telecommunications queries rose by 19.3%
Finance related searches increased by 7.9%
Shopping queries grew by 5.2%

This positive outlook follows a strong performance in the preceding year. By the end of 2025, Uzbekistan’s economy grew by 7.7%, a notable acceleration from the 6.7% growth recorded in 2024.