Sharp 17.5% spike in diesel prices threatens agricultural and industrial sectors

The upward trend was particularly pronounced during the first week of April. On April 3, the price per ton jumped by 15.2% to UZS 15.857 million, followed by an additional 2% increase on April 6. This volatility comes at a critical time for the national economy, as diesel is a primary input for the agriculture and industrial sectors, where price hikes often trigger inflationary knock-on effects.

According to the Ministry of Energy, domestic production has seen a substantial boost. Uzbekistan’s oil refineries and the Uzbekistan GTL plant produced a total of 249,000 tons of diesel in the first quarter of 2026 – an increase of 54.5% compared to the same period in 2025. Monthly production figures for the quarter showed 78,300 tons in January, 57,400 tons in February, and a peak of 113,300 tons in March.

However, the surge in prices has been accompanied by emerging discrepancies in official reporting. While the Ministry of Energy provided detailed monthly breakdowns, the National Statistics Committee reported 81,000 tons for January and has yet to disclose figures for February, stating that full data will only be available in its upcoming quarterly report.

Complementing domestic supply, data from the Customs Committee reveals that diesel imports rose to 35,800 tons in March, marking a 1.5-fold increase year-on-year. The combination of rising domestic output and increased imports has so far failed to cool the exchange prices, raising concerns among industrial consumers regarding the stability of fuel costs for the remainder of the spring season.