World Bank raises economic growth forecasts for Uzbekistan through 2027

According to the World Bank’s regional report published on April 8, the estimate for Uzbekistan’s GDP growth in 2025 has been raised by 1.5 percentage points to 7.7%.

The upward revisions extend into the coming years, with the 2026 forecast improved by 0.4 percentage points to 6.4%, and the 2027 outlook increased by 0.8 percentage points to 6.7%. This positive adjustment aligns with the Uzbek government’s own internal economic assessments and marks one of the most substantial upgrades in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region.

Experts attribute this economic momentum to several key factors, including an expansion in consumer lending and a 37% surge in remittances, which reached $18.9 billion in 2025 – approximately 13% of the nation's GDP. Notably, 78% of these transfers originated from Russia. Despite the optimistic figures, the World Bank cautioned that a significant state presence in the economy and the dominance of state–owned enterprises continue to limit the development of the private sector.

On a broader scale, the Central Asian subregion – comprising Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan – remains the fastest-growing area within the ECA region. In 2025, economic growth in Central Asia accelerated to 7%, up from 5.8% in 2024, marking its highest performance in 14 years. Uzbekistan (7.7%), Kyrgyzstan (11.1%), and Tajikistan (8.4%) emerged as the top three fastest-growing economies among more than 20 developing nations in the region.

The World Bank expects Central Asia to maintain its leadership position despite an overall projected slowdown in the ECA region to 2.1% in 2026. This broader regional deceleration is attributed to geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and the lingering effects of conflicts in the Middle East. While a slowdown in the Russian economy may pose risks to the subregion, high gold prices and large-scale infrastructure investments in transport and energy are expected to provide a vital cushion for Uzbekistan.

Looking ahead, the World Bank emphasizes that Uzbekistan's primary challenge for sustainable development remains the reduction of state dominance in the banking and industrial sectors. Analysts suggest that the country may continue to attract selective investors as it progresses with market reforms and pursues membership in the World Trade Organization. To fully unlock private sector potential, the financial institution recommends further efforts to remove regulatory barriers and foster a more competitive business environment.