Uzbekistan records significant drop in shadow economy as GDP growth hits peak

The size of Uzbekistan’s unobserved economy saw a notable contraction during the first quarter of this year, according to a report from the National Statistics Committee. The share of this sector in the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased from 24.8% in the same period last year to 22.9% between January and March 2026.

This reduction occurred alongside robust economic performance, with Uzbekistan's GDP reaching approximately UZS 447.9 trillion during the first quarter. This represents a real growth rate of 8.7%, the highest growth pace recorded since 2022. Within this framework, the gross value added by the unobserved economy was estimated at UZS 102.68 trillion.

The unobserved economy is comprised of both the informal and shadow sectors. The informal sector, which includes the economic activities of households and individuals, totaled UZS 69.12 trillion, or 15.4% of GDP. This marks a significant decline from the 23.6% share recorded in the first quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, the shadow sector was valued at UZS 33.35 trillion, equivalent to 7.5% of GDP, down slightly from 8.4% in the previous year.

Sectoral data indicates that the highest concentration of unobserved activity remains in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, which accounts for 81.1% of the total unobserved volume. The services sector and construction followed with shares of 24.5% and 23.9% respectively, while the industrial sector maintained a much lower share of 6.7%.

The most significant progress in bringing economic activity into the formal fold was observed in construction and services. Analysts attribute this shift primarily to a decrease in informal economic activities within these industries. For comparison, in 2025, the unobserved economy in Uzbekistan was valued at UZS 498 trillion (approximately $39.62 billion), representing 26.9% of the annual GDP, with the informal sector at 19% and the shadow sector at 7.9%. This latest quarterly data suggests a continuing trend toward greater economic transparency and formalization in the 2026-2027 period.