Fitch affirms Uzbekistan at BB while shifting rating outlook to positive

According to Fitch, the outlook upgrade reflects steady and active progress on structural economic reforms alongside a strong policy commitment to maintaining macroeconomic stability. The rating agency anticipates that these continuous efforts will secure sustainable gross domestic product (GDP) growth and optimize medium-term macroeconomic indicators, despite ongoing volatility in the global economy.

Fitch analysts emphasized that ongoing fiscal and monetary interventions are reinforcing institutional frameworks and increasing policy transparency. These adjustments have effectively narrowed the state budget deficit relative to government targets and enabled a significant accumulation of foreign-exchange reserves. This positive baseline dynamic is expected to further improve the overall quality of governance across the country.

The agency noted that the baseline "BB" rating remains anchored by favorable credit structural elements balanced against traditional emerging market constraints.

The "BB" rating continues to reflect Uzbekistan’s low government debt-to-GDP ratio, sizeable external buffers, and high economic growth potential. However, these strengths are counterbalanced by a still relatively low GDP per capita, high commodity dependence, and elevated inflation rates. 

Saida Mirziyoyeva, Head of the Presidential Administration and leader of the specialized government working group tasked with boosting the country’s sovereign credit profile, commented on the upgrade via her Telegram channel. She described the shift to a positive outlook as a strong signal of growing confidence from international investors.

Mirziyoyeva also reaffirmed Uzbekistan’s strategic dedication to pushing its sovereign credit score into investment-grade territory – targeting a "BBB–" rating by 2030. To achieve this milestone, she stated that Uzbekistan will continue its active, collaborative engagement with global institutional partners.