Gold falls below $4,000 as Fed fears mount; what it means for Uzbekistan

Despite the recent weakness, many market observers do not believe the longer-term bullish case for gold has disappeared.

Central banks continue to accumulate gold reserves at historically elevated levels, providing an important source of demand. The World Gold Council has repeatedly highlighted strong central-bank purchases as one of the key factors supporting the market, particularly as countries seek to diversify reserve holdings amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Several major financial institutions remain optimistic about gold's prospects by the end of the year despite recent downward revisions to short-term forecasts.

J.P. Morgan expects gold prices to recover and average around $5,055 per ounce during the fourth quarter of 2026, with prices potentially returning to the $5,000 level by year-end if central-bank demand remains robust and investor appetite improves.

ING has taken a somewhat more cautious view following the recent selloff but still expects gold to average approximately $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter and $4,600 in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Other market analysts similarly maintain that the current correction does not necessarily signal the end of gold's broader upward trend. Forecasts compiled from major institutions continue to point to prices finishing the year above current levels, particularly if inflation eases and expectations for further U.S. monetary tightening begin to moderate.

Silver has also come under pressure, mirroring gold's decline but with even greater volatility.

Spot silver recently fell below $60 per ounce and has recorded some of its sharpest daily declines of the year. Like gold, the metal has been weighed down by a stronger dollar and expectations of higher interest rates in the United States.

However, silver's market fundamentals differ from those of gold. In addition to serving as a precious metal and investment asset, silver is heavily used in solar panels, electronics, electric vehicles and other industrial applications. That industrial demand continues to provide support for longer-term price expectations.

Analysts surveyed by major financial institutions expect silver prices to remain elevated over the medium term, with some forecasts placing the metal in the $80–100 per ounce range amid persistent supply deficits and growing demand from the clean-energy sector.

Investors are now closely watching upcoming U.S. inflation data and signals from Federal Reserve officials for clues about the future direction of monetary policy. Further evidence of persistent inflation could reinforce expectations of higher rates and keep pressure on precious metals in the near term.

Conversely, signs that inflation is easing or that policymakers are becoming less hawkish could help gold and silver regain momentum later in the year. For Uzbekistan, where gold remains one of the economy's most important export commodities and a cornerstone of the country's reserves, the direction of precious-metal prices will remain a key indicator to watch in the months ahead.