The institute projects that the number of births will reach 892,700 in 2030, 1.016 million in 2040 and 1.234 million in 2050.
By 2050, the number of births is forecast to increase by 354,500, or 40.3%, compared with 2025.
The largest increases are expected in Tashkent region, where births could rise by 62%, followed by Tashkent city at 61% and Andijan region at 48.6%.
Samarkand region is projected to see a 43.3% increase, while the figure for Namangan region could rise by 42.4%.
The total fertility rate is expected to decline slightly in the medium term before returning to a steady growth trend. Across Uzbekistan, the indicator is projected at 21.2 per 1,000 people in 2030, 20.8 per 1,000 in 2040 and 21.9 per 1,000 in 2050.
Surkhandarya region is expected to have the highest birth rate in 2050 at 24.7 per 1,000 people, followed by Kashkadarya region at 23.8, Namangan and Samarkand regions at 23.1 each, Andijan region at 22.9 and Tashkent city at 22.3 per 1,000.
The institute said the projected rise in births would increase demand for education, healthcare, preschool education, housing, social services and labor market infrastructure in the coming years.
“Assessing demographic changes in advance will make it possible to allocate state resources more effectively, ensure comprehensive regional development and strategically plan investment in human capital,” the institute said.
Uzbekistan’s annual births could surpass 1 million by 2040
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The number of births in Uzbekistan is expected to continue rising over the coming decades, potentially surpassing 1 million a year by 2040, according to a long-term fertility forecast published by the Institute for Family and Gender Research.
