World Bank upgrades Uzbekistan’s 2026, 2027 growth forecasts

In 2026, Kyrgyzstan is projected to grow by 9.6%, followed by Uzbekistan at 7.9% and Tajikistan at 7.5%. Kazakhstan’s economy is expected to expand by 4.6%.

Growth across the subregion is projected to slow to 5.4% in 2027 and 5.1% in 2028.

The World Bank highlighted several major infrastructure projects supporting regional activity, including the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway, the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor and the Rogun Hydropower Plant.

Across developing economies in Europe and Central Asia, growth is expected to slow from 2.6% in 2025 to 2.2% in 2026. The World Bank attributed the slowdown to higher energy prices, heightened geopolitical uncertainty and weaker growth among major trading partners. Excluding Russia, regional growth is expected to reach 3% in 2026.

The bank identified intensified trade disruptions, the continuing war in Ukraine, higher energy, transport and fertilizer prices, tighter financing conditions and extreme weather events among the main downside risks.

AI adoption remains limited

The report also examines how artificial intelligence could help raise productivity and offset the effects of a shrinking working-age population in the region.

About one in five workers in Europe and Central Asia hold jobs meaningfully exposed to AI, while fewer than one in 10 firms currently use the technology, mostly for basic tasks.

In Uzbekistan, administrative and support workers are among those most exposed to the impact of AI.

According to the March 2026 results of the Listening to Uzbekistan survey, 48% of specialists and 43% of managers said they used AI at work. Among office workers, who are in the group whose tasks have the greatest potential for AI automation, the share was 27%.

AI is also being used by workers whose occupations have little potential for automation. Some 16% of unskilled workers surveyed said they used AI.

The World Bank said the gap between the potential for automation and actual AI use could partly reflect a shortage of basic digital skills. In a later round of the survey, nearly 39% of working respondents said they could not copy or move a file on a phone or computer without assistance.

The bank recommended that countries strengthen basic, digital and managerial skills, expand access to computing capacity and develop programs to support workers through the transition. Uzbekistan was among the countries cited as implementing sector-specific programs aimed at developing advanced AI skills.