Central Bank keeps key rate unchanged at 14 percent

According to the regulator, economic activity and consumer demand remained strong in the second quarter of this year, continuing to put upward pressure on prices. At the same time, the “base effect” of last year has now faded, which led to a downward trend in inflation from August.

Inflation indicators

• In August, annual headline inflation stood at 8.8 percent;
• Core inflation declined to 7.6 percent;
• In the services sector, secondary effects from rising energy prices continued to exert pressure.

Although seasonal factors and a stable exchange rate helped reduce inflation expectations among households and businesses in recent months, expectations still remain above the actual inflation rate.

Economic growth

In the first half of 2025, the economy grew by 7.2 percent. Growth was led by the services sector, with notable expansion also seen in industry, construction, and agriculture.

The main drivers of aggregate demand were identified as:

• growth in cross-border remittances,
• accelerated lending,
• budget spending and investment activity. 

External risks

The Central Bank highlighted international trade restrictions, rising global food prices, and persistently high inflation in key trading partner countries as potential factors that could strengthen imported inflation.

By the end of this year, inflation is projected to stand at around 8.7 percent.

The Central Bank stated that the decision to keep the key rate unchanged is aimed at supporting the attractiveness of savings, moderating the pace of lending, and balancing aggregate demand to ensure price stability.

The next policy meeting on the key rate is scheduled for October 23, 2025. The last time the Board left the rate unchanged at 14 percent was in June this year.