Uzbekistan’s GDP surpasses $100 billion after shadow economy reassessment

In collaboration with a mission from the World Bank, the Uzbekistan Statistics Agency reassessed the country's GDP, taking into account the shadow economy.

The agency had previously reported that Uzbekistan's GDP for 2023 was $90.8 billion. After including the informal and shadow economy in the reassessment, this figure increased by $10.7 billion, reaching $101.6 billion.

The results of the study were announced on July 31 at a conference at the Center for Economic Research and Reforms.

According to Levan Gogoberishvili, a specialist in real sector statistics from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), reassessing national accounts to include the informal economy ensures the completeness of statistical data and provides a more accurate picture of the economy's state.

Gogoberishvili stated that the major changes in the 2019 reassessment of Uzbekistan's national statistics were related to agricultural data. The 2024 reassessment, however, showed significant changes in figures for construction, hotels and restaurants, healthcare, education, and other sectors.

According to the IMF representative, the nominal GDP level is expected to increase by approximately 10-12% as a result of the reassessment. At the same time, the maximum change in the real GDP growth rate is expected to be around 0.8 percentage points.

How was the Reassessment Conducted?

The assessment of the informal and shadow economy was carried out based on sample statistical surveys and administrative data.

The study was conducted across 14 regions of the republic. Specifically, in July-August 2023, a technical assistance mission from the IMF was involved, surveying more than 7,000 households in the Republic of Karakalpakstan, the regions, and the city of Tashkent across 165 districts on their living and eating expenses, transportation, culture, education, healthcare, and other services.

Based on the collected data, the volume of the informal and shadow economy and its impact on GDP were assessed for sectors and regions for the years 2017-2023.

As a result of the calculations carried out, the nominal GDP of the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2023 increased by 125.6 trillion UZS ($10.7 billion), reaching 1 quadrillion 192.2 trillion UZS ($101.6 billion).

Detailed results of the study will be announced at a press conference at the Information and Mass Communications Agency (IMCA) on August 6.

The next general reassessment of national statistical indicators is scheduled for 2029.