The World Bank has published its forecast on the state of the economies of Central Asia, according to which the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) of Uzbekistan in 2020 will be 1.6%. For comparison, at the beginning of the year, the World Bank predicted GDP growth of Uzbekistan at 5.7% – the highest indicator in the region.
It is noted that the COVID-19 pandemic is a serious challenge for the economy of Uzbekistan. Growth, according to experts of the bank, will decline sharply in 2020 as a result of a significant decrease in foreign trade and domestic economic shocks. GDP growth in 2021 is projected at 6.5%, in 2022 - 5.5%.
Reduced tax revenues and additional costs to smooth out the crisis are expected to increase the budget deficit to 5.6% of GDP in 2020 and 4.7% of GDP in 2021.
Earlier, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) published a more optimistic forecast for the growth of the economy of Uzbekistan. In its main annual economic publication, Asia Development Review 2020, ADB predicts Uzbekistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2020 at 4.7%, down from 5.6% last year.
ADB predicts GDP growth to be at 5.8% in 2021, as reforms will stimulate growth in agriculture, industry and services.